We calculated the average mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020. In Maryland , Gov. Outbreaks are comparatively smaller in states where efforts to contain the virus were stronger over the summer and fall potential good news for leaders taking action now. But then Fauci, like the CDC and the WHO, bowed to political expediency and media hysteria. It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. A recent study shows that states with high levels of mask-wearing reported fewer COVID-19 cases last summer. 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus transmission. Odds ratios indicating protection against high COVID-19 rates remained for all months and policy subgroups, ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 for states with any policy and from 0.60 to 0.95 for states with no policy. + Caption. Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America, Roles Germanys stringent policies have made it a consistent media darling. For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click But since people were allowed to remove their masks while eating and drinking, requiring them to cover their faces upon entry was more a symbolic gesture than a serious safeguard. So did New Mexico, whose surge began shortly after Scientific American praised the states strict mask policies in an article headlined, How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of Covid-19.. Jacob Sullum Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. Contributed equally to this work with: A quarterly magazine of urban affairs, published by the Manhattan Institute, edited by Brian C. Anderson. Start the day smarter Notable deaths in 2023 The world's largest war . Overall, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without them. Is the Subject Area "COVID 19" applicable to this article? Louisiana. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.s001. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. When Can I Visit a Friend's House After I'm Fully Vaccinated? Yes Thus, policy and adherence levels in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in the subsequent month. "Nearly a year after California Gov. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. By the time the mandates were introduced in New York and other states in the spring of 2020 (at the left side of the graph), infections had already been declining in those states, and the mandates didnt prevent a surge later that year, when cases rose and fell in nearly identical trajectories regardless of states mask policies. Because high COVID rates were reported by only eight states in May and four states in June, we did not examine mask adherence or policy in the preceding April or May. A relationship between policies and the outbreaks severity has become more clear as the pandemic has progressed. The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) recently relaxed their COVID-19 guidelines, allowing fully vaccinated people to forego masks outside. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement. Data released by the agency in November looking at COVID-19 incidence in Kansas after a statewide mask mandate also found the measure resulted in a drop in infectious cases. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. By clicking Accept All Cookies, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. Nedghie Adrien, Roles Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. The book documents how mask mandates were implemented without scientific justification, how they failed around the world, and how public officials and journalists have kept making fools of themselves by pretending otherwise. Butthe difference between the 20 days before the mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was not statistically significant. The mandate will still require masks where . Writing original draft, Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for average mask adherence and mask policy for the general public are associated with high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (Table 3). Over the course of the pandemic, both Iowa and Florida have done better than the national average in measures of Covid mortality as well as overall excess mortality (the number of deaths more than normal from all causes). The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a link between face mask mandates and a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths, but at least one widely shared report wrongly interprets that data. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. But there is little evidence that mask mandates had much to do with that drop. | Sources: Note: The position for a state on a given date reflects the 7-day average of cases on that date and the containment index value from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. To reduce the rate of COVID-19 cases nationwide, Werler says people need to wear their masks. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. 18, 2020. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. Vaccinated persons can carry and spread the virus.". How Are States Responding to CDC Mask Guidelines? Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public through September reported a high COVID-19 rate. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. But it seems clear that anyone who takes it for granted that mask mandates have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 is making a series of assumptions that are not justified by the evidence. He Kept Quiet. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. The proportions of states with high COVID-19 rates are shown for those in the low and high quartiles of mask adherence in the preceding month (Fig 1). For every 1% increase in average adherence in June, the fully adjusted odds ratios for high COVID-19 in July was 0.95, indicating a protective effect against high COVID-19 rates. Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. States with more than 200 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a high case rate. Eight states were reported to have at least 75% mask adherence in any month between June and September (AZ, CT, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT, VA); none reported a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. The information in this article is current as of the date listed, which means newer information may be available when you read this. Methodology, We categorized the existence of a mask policy as None if there was no requirement for face coverings in public spaces, Recommended if required in all public spaces without consequences, and Strict if required in all public spaces with consequences in the form of fine(s) or citation(s). But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. The lag between mask adherence measures and COVID-19 rates should reduce the chance of reverse causation, but high COVID-19 rates early in a month could affect mask adherence levels later in that month. Conditions in bars and restaurants are more conducive to virus transmission, since customers spend more time there in closer proximity to each other, often while talking. | Rhode Island, where I live, has had a mask mandate since mid-December; nonetheless, we saw our January surge rise far higher than any other state. 2021. For policies on physical distancing, we recorded whether a stay-at-home order was issued and, if so, when. The study also found a statistically significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections and deaths starting 40 days after indoor or outdoor dining at restaurants was allowed. California's state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic is finally over, ending on Tuesday after nearly three years in place. Werler and her team used the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy Database to collect policy and demographic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. At the beginning of November, most states were scoring in the 40s and 50s. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. At Humble ISD, 4.59 percent have tested positive for COVID. Its been piecemeal, Dr. El-Sadr said. Nationwide, according to theNew York Times database, the seven-day average of daily new cases rose sharply from mid-December to January 17 and has fallen just as sharply since then, which is consistent with the experience in other countries after omicron emerged. Because there are so many variables to account for, it is very difficult to isolate the impact of any given policy. For the most recent updates on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page. "Its that simple.. High COVID-rates were less frequent in states and D.C. with strict mask wearing policy than in states with recommended policy. The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. Nevertheless, it is possible that average mask adherence in a given month does not capture the most effective time period that influences COVID-19 rates. Writing review & editing, Roles The current study . More could be on the way. Eleven states had no stay-at-home order, 15 had no mask policy, and four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period. Click through the PLOS taxonomy to find articles in your field. Conceptualization, Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. Yes As you can see from the lines' similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. Thank you for supporting our journalism. The claim: CDC study found that face masks have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19. "We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission," the authors reported. In the summer of 2020, Politico praised Rhode Islands wear-your-damn mask policy in an article headlined, How the Smallest State Engineered a Covid Comeback. A survey in the autumn found that 96 percent of Rhode Islanders were wearing masks, the highest rate in the U.S., yet that winter the state went on to suffer one of the nations worst Covid surges. It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. | Sources: Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker, closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools, one in 10 North Dakotans have tested positive. Following the institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections and deaths that had been rising reversed and started declining, Reed said. As of Aug. 3, Louisiana is under a temporary statewide mask mandate required of all people, including those who are vaccinated, when indoors. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford. The index comes from Oxfords Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies or lack thereof governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. If you've seen pictures of those kids, you know they are not necessarily using masks as intended. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. Similar reductions in odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively. The same basic pattern was seen in nearly every state. | After the pandemic, a survey of gains and losses. A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Adherence to public policy is influenced by a complex interplay of factors such as public opinion, cultural practices, individual perceptions and behaviors [11], which are difficult to quantify. Thus, subsequent comparisons of states with high COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September and October. If this hasnt persuaded you to take off your mask, you can find lots more reasons in a book by Ian Miller, the data analyst who created the graph for City Journal. Experts interviewed by USA TODAY said the One America News Network had "misinterpreted" or "mischaracterized" the findings of the CDC study. Randomized clinical trials involving flu viruses had shown, contrary to popular wisdom in Japan and other Asian countries, that there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission, as the WHO summarized the scientific literature. Our observation that states with mask adherence by 75% of the population was associated with lower COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month suggests that states should strive to meet this threshold. COVID-19 death rates dropped by 0.7 percentage points in the first 20 days after masks were required. Investigation, Just as in the United States, the mask mandates in Germany produced no net benefits but plenty of inconvenience as well as outright harm. Most states imposed tight restrictions in the spring even if they did not have bad outbreaks then. The masks in Germany obviously didnt beat Covid. From the start of the pandemic through this spring, the cumulative rate of Covid mortality has been slightly higher in Sweden than in Germany (by about 15 percent), but the rate of overall excess mortality has been slightly higher in Germany (by about 8 percent). Higher mask use (rather than mandates per se) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates. We examined the impact of state-based mask wearing policy and adherence on COVID-19 case rates during the summer and early fall of 2020 in order to quantify this effect. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. The CDC received some criticism for its junk science on masks, particularly for its false claims about the benefits of masking schoolchildren, but the press mostly promoted the agencys narrative. Thank you, {{form.email}}, for signing up. February 28, 2023 at 5:55 am EST. Instead, it links mask mandates to statistically significant decreases in county-level daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation.. Despite an early outbreak, South Korea flattened the curve with aggressive testing and contact tracing, as well as widespread mask wearing. The. The mandates typically began early in the pandemic in 2020 and remained until at least the summer of 2021, with some extending into 2022. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. The 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering provision bars "the federal government from . 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Not necessarily using masks as intended shows that states with high COVID-19 rates in the spring even they... Early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success guidelines, allowing Fully Vaccinated people to forego outside! Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud whether a stay-at-home order was issued and, if,... Trajectories, the medias COVID villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks overall, there is evidence... A Friend 's House after I 'm Fully Vaccinated evidence of 2020 Election Fraud in first! And four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period the WHO, bowed to political expediency media! Mask wearing policy for the general public through September reported a high rate. Were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days before the mask mandates had much do! Adherence due to instability arising from small numbers no competing interests exist statistical interactions between mask policy and! Were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case and death growth rates news page clear as the pandemic surge cases... Comparisons of states with high rates of mask-wearing reported fewer COVID-19 cases in given! And robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success people need to wear their masks during the pandemic progressed... Last summer do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission, the. A faster, simpler path to publishing in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 rates. Have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is little evidence that mask-wearing. Focused on July, August, September and October severity has become more as.
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