IDA IS FORECAST TO Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. THE Please select one of the following: Local KFCX Standard Radar (low bandwidth), Citizens Weather Observing Program (CWOP), Outdoor Activities: Weather Safety and Preparedness, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Ahead of the tropical development,dangerous heat levels will continuewith the potential forscattered thunderstorms across the Southeast and Gulf Coast over the next few days, a few of which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, according tothe National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA. Current data typically are recorded at 15- to 60-minute intervals. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at, make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER Yesterday, I had observed the satellite imagery and concluded that it was certainly possible for Hurricane Ida to be something stronger than the forecast intensity of 70 kts. The most reliable hurricane models, according to their 2019 performance That same shear, however, will then serve to mess up the storm and so the forecast calls for it to fall back to tropical storm status. Maximum heat index forecast for next 7 days. The powerful storm made landfall as a near Category-5 storm in southwestern Florida. Past Observed Weather The data is updated every month. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE EXCEPTION OF FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIESTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL Where is Hurricane Ida? Track the storm's location - Montgomery Advertiser 36HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 87.1W 65 KTINLAND 12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.8N 87.5W 85 KT ALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDAIT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY The most well-known models - the Euro, GFS, Canadian, and others - all have ensembles. The ultimate truth of the landfall time will probably be sometime in between the NOGAPS and GFS/NAM timing. 72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.3N 86.2W 45 KT ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO 1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009. THE GFDL AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. GULF COAST. All in all, this will bea storm that will bring a minimal storm surge with some gusty winds. Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2023. Tropical Storm Ida became Hurricane Ida before making landfall and spent the day over Nicaragua. It may indeed become extra-tropical. MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. This site is AD FREE so I rely on donations to keep it running. K. 7 C / NA Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. Future radar data is available from now to ~2.5 days in the future. HOWEVERIT IS BECOMING You can access the Mobile National Weather Service Radar Here. Map. WHAT REMAINS OF THE Here's a guide to the percentage of power outages in each county. Skywarn WITH THE THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR MISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! You are on the spaghetti models page for Ida. CENTERRECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KTBUT Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! 36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.3N 84.8W 25 KTEXTRATROPICAL Former Hurricane Ida is moving along as expected so far and for the next day or so, there is a pretty fair consensus on what is going to happen. The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Hurricane Ida will intensify and poses a dangerous hurricane threat to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by Sunday. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED I noted a buoy about 40 miles south of Orange, Alabama with winds of about 35 kts gusting to near 45 kts and seas were running about 16 ft. H. 980 mb IDA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340 A couple of models suggest it becoming a hurricane again, but the NHC is dismissing those, citing an idea that wind shear will develop and prevent such an solution. Ryan Truchelut, a meteorologist with the Tallahassee-based startup, offers this explainer of the science behind the spaghetti models. But, there have been several models that want to take the storm back to the southeast once it gets into the Northwest Gulf. M. C8 Models are having a. First is how subtle the circulation of Ida was as it developed off the coast. LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT. It quickly fell back to a tropical depression and, almost exactly as forecast, moved offshore of the northeast coast of Honduras on Friday evening. Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! Dynamical models require hours on a supercomputer solving physical equations of. The NOGAPS solution is probably more accurate as to timing and location but I bet the GFS and NAM idea of a 1004mb low is probably a better call than the NOGAPS 1009 mb suggestion. However, only 3 of 17 models that make up the 00z spaghetti model intensity run take Ida back up to Hurricane status. A cold front is still looking to move into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and begin to influence the storm. Ida was located about 100 miles SSW of Mobile and had slowed a bit with a northerly track of 13 mph. CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE Weather Maps and Computer Models. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD Criteria for Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings Lowering For Our Mountains on 5/15. I thought a conventional viewpoint of the storm getting caught up in the strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trof, thus shooting the storm northeast, would be something to consider. Future radar data is available from now to ~2.5 days in the future. 36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.7N 85.5W 40 KT Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. Those are both formidable ifs but most data suggests that is what will happen. WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HIGH BIAS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTSAS WAS THE CASE WITH 4. Massive Pileup Shuts Down I-55 In Illinois, Multiple People Killed In Illinois Dust Storm Pileup, How The Omega Block Will Dominate Our Weather, A Wild Week Of Animals On The Go In Snow And More, New State Warns Pet Owners About Dog Flu Outbreak, 7 Facts To Keep Your Pup Safe From Dog Flu, FDA Says Dogs Are OK In Outdoor Dining Areas, Deputies Pull Father, Son From Florida Rip Current, NOAA Report Is Good News For U.S. MAP: Here's the latest forecast track of Tropical Depression Fred Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!! Fisheries, Space Photographer Captures Sheer Joy Of Starship Launch, Meet The Iconic Garbage-Eating Mr. Trash Wheel. Data shows the location and intensity of drought across the country. In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. In doing so, the storm is expected to be so influenced by the front and colder water over the northern Gulf (weve had a lot of strong cold fronts lately) that Ida becomes Extra-Tropical. PLEASE if you appreciate my website and the information I provide then consider a one time or recurring donation!! One thing of interest. Donate. Confidence is pretty high through Monday. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire. CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENINGBUT THE Tropical Cyclone Reports, Local Programs THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANVERTICAL This includes experimental path data based on weather models. THE TRACK MODELS Tropical Cyclone Model & Best Track Archive: Current Storms HAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST. While it is falling apart and becoming a run-of-the-mill low, it will still be an area of low pressure and I think will act accordingly. That is really not an issue because that has more to do with the structure of the storm and wherever it makes landfall, residents can expect a storm surge, heavy rain and gusty winds. MORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS Local Research Please be sure to visit these sites for tons of more tools on tracking the Tropics! Even though I would think that Ida will be off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday, I would think that an area from say Tallahassee to Savannah to Daytona and maybe as far south as Cedar Key will have 36 to 48 hours of decent rain that could accumulate and cause some problems. But, there are many variables, not the least of whichis getting Ida out of Central America in tact and then have it be in an environment to redevelop. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD INITIAL 09/0300Z 23.7N 86.7W 90 KT Tropical Atlantic Weather Resources NOAA National Hurricane Center International Meteorology Database If it got completely absorbed, then it wouldnt be a distinct low and therefore no longer an entity to be tracked. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any front attached. Thank you to all of these websites for information and graphics we use on this website. Drought Conditions, Current Conditions County-level monthly precipitation and temperature data since 1895 provieded by National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Albany A number of cameras are showing live feeds as storm approaches. Global Model Run Times Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. 12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.8N 87.9W 40 KTEXTRATROPICAL Current UTC Time Hurricane Ida Tracker: Cone, Spaghetti Models, Satellite and More IDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING Well youve come to the right place!! NWS Educator Videos and Materials Hurricane Ida Tracker: Spaghetti Models, Cone, Satellite and More It looks like a Mobile Bay landfall, 50 miles west of Pensacola will be likely. . In any event, its an interesting academic discussion. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48HR VT 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W 60 KT Seems to me that if it is still a distinct circulation center, it would run up the front. Well you've come to the right place!! THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE At this speed, landfall would be at about 6 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida emerged with a circulation but with the bulk of the convection on the northern half. Now, as I mentioned yesterday, some of the models didnt really give the cold front coming down too much credit but the spaghetti model indicates that several are now reflecting the cold fronts presence as toward the latter part of the extended tracks, you see it beginning to veer to the right. TCDAT1 A. QUICKLY TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ABSORBING COLD FRONT Current UTC Time Upper Air Soundings, Forecasts PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF. This data is updated every 5 minutes. WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EAST AFTER LANDFALL. 900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009. 22 deg 47 min N IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6. CYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. For instance, the GFS is run. 1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009. THIS HAS REQUIRED THIS SUPPORTS AN So what. The other factor in Hurricane Idas demise will be strong southwesterly shear ahead of a trof that is moving across the Continental United States. The official Idaforecasttrackfrom the National Hurricane Center calls for it to trudge across Honduras for the better part of Friday before emerging late in the day just off the northeast coast of that country. In fact, if you look at the Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop to the left, it really looks like it doesnt have much in the way of tropical characteristics. With the increase in convection with a disturbance coming from the Bay of Campeche, I would think that anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee will get a pretty good dose of rain. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. 72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 45 KTEXTRATROPICAL DEGREES AT 10 KT AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia,National Hurricane Centerofficials are reporting, one of which may affect south Mississippi. See latest satellite image from NOAA, for a clearer picture of the storm's size, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. REGIONWHICH SHOULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IDA HOUR PERIODTHE CYCLONE SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWEST 120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 87.0W 45 KT, Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track Eyes Mobile Bay Landfall as it Weakens Rapidly, Mobile National Weather Service Radar Here, Hurricane Ida In Gulf with 100 mph winds; Will Be Weakening at landfall in US, Tropical Storm Ida could soon to be Hurricane Ida again; Ida Forecast Track slightly more clear. 24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.0N 86.5W 70 KT AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE. BE RECALLED HOWEVER THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A Models View | Hurricane and Hurricane coverage from MyFoxHurricane.com Hurricane Ida is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the Hurricane Ida Forecast Track takes it inland near Pensacola, Florida. In any event, everyone seems to me on board with a landfall in the US. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher! LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. Here's the latest forecast track, including the. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. Love Spaghetti Models? We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Fire Weather URNT12 KNHC 082332 A cold front sweeps it all away and that will be the end of that by Thursday. Now, yesterday I opined that the then forecast of it turning back southeast seemed a bit improbable to me. That is pretty pedestrian and is indicative of just how far and how fast Ida is expected to fall apart. Owlie Skywarn Kid's Page 12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.1N 84.2W 35 KT Pragmatically, that is not so much of a big deal because extra-tropical storms can produce extremely strong winds and bring excessive rains. new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel. NOAA BUOY 42057LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE Florida is in a scramble to re-energize the state as quickly as possible. Aviation Forecasts, Radar Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind! If you look at the Total Precipitable Water loop to the left, two things stand out. I would think a plausible scenario would be for the storm to move into the big bend of Florida and exit into the Atlantic somewhere between Daytona and Savannah. Penn State. Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane. In the process found itself downgraded to a Tropical Depression. So,theSunday night observations may be an early indication that Ida has seen its best days andthe decline hasalready begun. An ensemble is a collection of forecasts all valid at the same forecast time. EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. Now, its true, the models do take the storm back south, but I contend that climatology and the fact that the storm is transitioning from a tropical system that is may be possible that the models are confused. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA NORTH. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at, make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTTHE MODELS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL This includes experimental path data based on weather models. SUITBUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BUT SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFTAND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36 Climate Prediction Hurricane Ian Tracker: Winds, Cone, Satellite And More A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 As long as the front behaves and gets into the Gulf by Tuesday, then the storm will begin to curve. Late Sundaynight, when I saw the Vortex message from the Hurricane Hunters, I noted that it was showing a rise in pressure and an open section of the eyewall and suggested that perhaps it was already beginning its demise even though the winds had increased to 105 mph. Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind! TROPICAL STORMS DANNYERIKAAND HENRI OF THIS YEAR. NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LANDTHE SYSTEM SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN